Investigations and predictions

Some questions deserve more than one reading. An investigation is a private project for one question: you link the readings, casts, draws, dreams and sessions that bear on it, from any practice, add notes as things develop, and close it with what you concluded. Open your investigations.

Records stay as they were

Linking a record does not copy or change it. A tarot reading keeps its cards, a passage draw its passage and how it was chosen, a dream its first capture. The investigation only points to them, so the evidence is always the original. Removing a link, or deleting the investigation, leaves every record in your journal.

Predictions, registered in advance

If a reading leads you to expect something, you can register it as a prediction before you know the answer: the claim, how confident you are (1 to 99%), the date to judge it, and how you will know whether it came true. Once saved, those four cannot be changed. Later you record the outcome: came true, did not happen, partly, could not be judged, or withdrawn.

Predictions cannot be deleted one by one, so misses stay in the record. Withdrawing one keeps it, marked as withdrawn. This is what makes the record worth looking at: it is easy to remember the hits and forget the misses.

Scoring

Predictions judged true or false are scored with the Brier score: for each one, the square of the gap between your confidence and what happened (1 if it came true, 0 if not), averaged. 0 is perfect; saying 50% every time scores 0.25; confident misses cost the most. Partly, could-not-be-judged and withdrawn predictions are counted and shown but not scored.

With enough predictions, the calibration table compares what you said with what happened: if the things you call 80% likely come true about 80% of the time, you are well calibrated. This measures your own judgement over time. It is not a test of any practice, and a small number of predictions says very little.

Your symbols

Your symbols gathers what recurs across your records: the symbols you tag in dreams, the tags on any journal entry, and the tarot cards and runes you draw, so you can see that “water” or the Tower has come up in a dream, a reading and a cast in the same month. Each has room for your own associations, kept apart from Scryway’s card and rune meanings. Only your own records are used, and nothing is suggested.